As Nigeria approaches the 2027 presidential election, political debates and geopolitical maneuvers are becoming more intense. At the core of these developments are renowned opposition leaders Rabiu Kwankwaso, Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar, as well as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Opposition’s strategic discussions
The necessity of unity is becoming increasingly apparent in the wake of the 2023 elections, in which a fragmented opposition was unable to overthrow Tinubu.
Ibrahim Abdullahi, the PDP’s Deputy National Publicity Secretary, has previously pointed out that Obi and Kwankwaso might have stayed with the party if internal disputes had been handled more skillfully, which could have changed the election’s outcome.
He underlined that talks are still going on with the goal of assembling a strong coalition to take on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
Not all observers, meanwhile, are upbeat about the opposition’s prospects.
Deji Adeyanju, an activist lawyer, advised Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso against funding a second presidential campaign, claiming that even a unified opposition could be unable to defeat Tinubu’s political clout and Nigeria’s election system.
Calls for broader alliances
Some voices are calling for an opposition coalition that is more inclusive than just Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso. Former APC National Vice Chairman (North-West), Salihu Lukman, has called on prominent figures like Nasir El-Rufai, Rotimi Amaechi, Kayode Fayemi, and former Vice President Yemi Osinbajo to support the opposition. He emphasized that the only viable approach to challenge the APC’s supremacy is to put aside personal goals in favor of creating a powerful political party.
The ruling party’s stance
Regarding the 2027 elections, the APC is both optimistic and cautious. Although the party recognizes that the opposition may reorganize, it is still confident that President Tinubu’s government will fulfill its commitments and win over the public.
Ahmed S. Aruwa, the Kano APC Publicity Secretary, downplayed worries about Tinubu’s prospects of winning reelection. He asserts that Atiku Abubakar’s political career is coming to an end. Additionally, he disregarded Kwankwaso’s significance, claiming that his recent encounter with former Minister Rauf Aregbesola was only an attempt to stay in power.
“Kwankwaso has no political party at the moment,” Aruwa stated.
“His popularity in the North is overrated and cannot compare to Tinubu’s economic reforms and war against insecurity.”
What analysts are saying ahead of 2027
There is still disagreement over the expected result of the 2027 elections.
Speaking to reporters, political expert Abdullahi Abba expressed a preference for an Atiku administration. He maintained that Atiku’s lengthy political career has enabled him to amass a sizable network of allies and supporters throughout Nigeria.
“His previous roles, including serving as Vice President, have solidified his connections within the party and the broader political landscape,” Abba said.
Furthermore, he noted that Atiku’s history of forging alliances across geographical boundaries and ethnic groups strengthens his appeal as a candidate who can bring people together. However, he warned that there may be issues with party dynamics within the party.
“The ambitions of other influential figures, such as Governors Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde, may lead to factionalism within the PDP. Managing these dynamics will be crucial for Atiku’s success.”
Taking a more comprehensive stance, political scientist Dr. Sa’id Dukawa of Bayero University Kano predicted that the 2027 election will be a full-scale conflict in which all significant parties would be actively involved.
“Cross-carpeting and political alliances are at an all-time high. Politicians are preparing early, and 2027 will be a game-changer,” Dukawa remarked.
Public sentiment and the road ahead
Nigerians’ expectations continue to diverge as political scheming escalates. A lot of people still want a government that can successfully combat corruption, economic instability, and insecurity.
He mirrored the growing mood of the public when he said that unless there are notable improvements, Tinubu would find it difficult to hold onto power.
“As alliances form and strategies unfold, Nigerians remain the ultimate decision-makers. If they do not see the change they voted for, they will replace Tinubu’s government with a more promising candidate in 2027.”
The political landscape is changing quickly, therefore the upcoming years should be very active as the opposition and the ruling party prepare for the big fight.
According to Umar Ibrahim Umar, Executive Director of War Against Injustice, Tinubu’s prospects in 2027 may be threatened by the economic hardship brought on by his policies.
“The economic reforms have caused more hardship than relief Subsequent policies have not been any friendlier,” Umar said.
2027: Who will Northerners support?
If they decide to cast a ballot at all, many Northerners have not yet decided who would receive their votes.
The first significant economic policy that Nigerians questioned following Tinubu’s inauguration on May 29 was the increased cost of gasoline, which several Keke Napep riders voiced their displeasure with.
Speaking to reporters in Kano, a few of them expressed their resentment at having to renounce their higher-purchase agreements due to their inability to reach their daily goals.
“A liter of gasoline now costs over ₦1,000, and it doesn’t even last,” complains one rider.
“We are searching for food,” another said. Who has time to cast a ballot?
Many Nigerians are still sceptical about re-electing the current government, even in the face of heightened campaigns by APC leaders and Tinubu’s cabinet members—and news of plummeting food costs in several Northern Nigerian marketplaces.
They are thinking about options from the PDP, NNPP, or perhaps the LP because of the present uncertainties.
