Former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, has sounded a stark alarm over Nigeria’s economic trajectory, citing a new report that forecasts a potential economic collapse by September 2026 if urgent reforms are not enacted.
In a post on his verified X (formerly Twitter) account on Friday, El-Rufai shared a provocative article titled “Nigeria 2026: The Year All Hell Breaks Loose”, authored by economist Dr. Nnaoke Ufere. The report leverages machine learning models and economic simulations to predict a 75% probability of a full-blown debt crisis.
Key Predictions from the Report:
Sovereign Default: Nigeria may default on external debt obligations due to spiraling debt and reduced revenue, particularly from oil exports.
Naira Crash & Bank Collapse: The naira could plummet in value, leading to a collapse of confidence in the banking sector.
Credit Downgrade: A likely downgrade to junk status would trigger early repayment demands from international lenders.
Revenue Seizures: There’s a risk of creditors seizing oil shipments, severely disrupting Nigeria’s revenue flow.
Hyperinflation: In response to the shortfall, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) might resort to excessive money printing, causing uncontrollable inflation.
Breakdown of Public Services: Widespread fuel, food, and medicine shortages could emerge, and states might struggle to pay salaries.
Insecurity and Lawlessness: A collapse in infrastructure and policing could trigger nationwide unrest.
“This is not speculation or alarmism,” the report warns. “It is a clear and present danger based on rigorous analysis and robust scenario simulations.”
El-Rufai urged Nigerians to share the forecast with lawmakers and policy influencers at both national and state levels, stressing that decisive fiscal and structural reforms are urgently needed to avoid the catastrophic scenario outlined.
The article has sparked widespread reactions on social media, with many Nigerians expressing concern over the bleak outlook and calling on the federal government to clarify its economic strategy moving forward.
Read the full thread from El-Rufai
https://x.com/elrufai/status/1951267212683084144?t=jVIwonL0_BnhmpPkceroPQ&s=19
