The Head of Research and Programmes at Kimpact Development Initiative, KDI, Oluwafemi John Adebayo, has warned that the credibility of Nigeria’s 2027 general election will be determined long before voters head to the polls.
Adebayo said the country’s democratic future depends not only on election day but also on the actions of political parties, institutions and stakeholders in the months leading up to the polls.
Speaking during an interview on Monday, he acknowledged that Nigeria has made administrative preparations for the election but argued that the country is yet to address deeper issues that determine whether the process will be free, fair and credible.
“The credibility of the 2027 general election will not be decided only on election day. It is already being determined in party primaries, courtrooms, security planning meetings, voter registration centres, newsrooms and the daily decisions of institutions entrusted with protecting Nigeria’s democracy.”
He noted that the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, has released the election timetable, political parties have conducted their primaries, candidates are being uploaded to the nomination portal and voter registration has attracted renewed public interest.
However, he stressed that administrative preparations alone do not guarantee credible elections.
“The real question is not whether Nigeria is preparing for the 2027 general election. It is whether Nigeria is preparing for a credible democratic contest,” he said.
According to Adebayo, an election may follow its timetable yet fail to inspire public confidence if citizens believe the outcome has already been decided before voting begins.
He observed that despite Nigeria’s economic challenges, many citizens remain actively engaged in politics through voter registration, political debates, fact checking and civic participation on social media.
“The dominant narrative is often that Nigerians have become apathetic. The evidence suggests something more nuanced. Many citizens have not disengaged from politics. They have become sceptical of institutions,” Adebayo stated.
He added that many Nigerians are increasingly questioning whether their votes will genuinely influence electoral outcomes.
Commenting on political parties, Adebayo argued that the credibility of the 2027 elections has already been affected by the conduct of party primaries.
He said the primaries were marked by elite influence, candidate imposition, money politics, violence, litigation and internal disputes rather than transparent democratic processes.
According to him, governors played significant roles in determining candidates within the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, while opposition parties also faced leadership disputes, parallel structures and legal battles.
“Political parties are the gatekeepers of democracy. When they struggle to conduct credible internal elections, the credibility of the general election begins to erode long before the first ballot is cast,” he said.
On the role of INEC, Adebayo acknowledged that the electoral commission has continued preparations through the release of its timetable, engagement with political parties and management of the nomination process.
He, however, maintained that rebuilding public trust following the 2023 general election remains one of the commission’s biggest challenges.
“Electoral commissions conduct elections. Public confidence determines whether elections are believed. For INEC, restoring institutional trust may prove just as important as delivering logistical efficiency,” he said.
Adebayo also identified insecurity as one of the major threats to the 2027 elections, citing insurgency, banditry, kidnapping, communal clashes and political violence across different parts of the country.
He warned that insecurity could discourage voter participation and urged security agencies to focus on intelligence gathering, conflict prevention, coordinated planning and political neutrality rather than limiting their efforts to election day deployments.
He further highlighted the importance of the media and civil society organisations in protecting Nigeria’s democracy.
According to him, journalists now play critical roles in verifying information, exposing misinformation and investigating electoral irregularities, while civil society organisations contribute through election observation, voter education, conflict monitoring, early warning systems and promoting accountability.
Although he acknowledged that Nigeria appears largely prepared from an administrative standpoint, Adebayo maintained that unresolved party disputes, security concerns, declining public confidence in electoral institutions and ongoing political litigation continue to cast uncertainty over the 2027 elections.
“The election is less than six months away. The more important question is whether Nigeria will spend that time preparing only for an election or preparing for the democracy that gives elections their meaning,” he said.
