The African Democratic Congress is currently grappling with a leadership crisis, as rival factions lay claim to control of the party ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The dispute centres on Nafiu Bala and a rival group led by former Senate President, David Mark, with both sides asserting legitimacy over the party’s national leadership.
Tensions escalated last week when the Mark led faction announced the expulsion of Nafiu Bala and other members, including Leke Abejide and several party officials, during its 8th National Convention in Abuja.
The faction maintained that its action was in line with the party constitution, but Bala rejected the convention as illegal, insisting it was not recognised by law or the Independent National Electoral Commission.
Addressing journalists in Abuja, Bala said those who announced their expulsion lacked the legal authority to do so, arguing that they were not recognised members of the party.
“Our suspension is nullity. These individuals are not even members of our party, so they lack the locus to take such decisions…We will fight it to the last point”, he said.
Amid the crisis, another contest is emerging within the Mark led bloc over the party’s potential presidential candidate, as political interests begin to align around key figures.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, in a recent interview, dismissed claims that other northern aspirants could match his political strength, insisting he remains the most popular among contenders.
He also expressed confidence in a coalition arrangement that could produce either a consensus candidate or emerge through a primary election.
The internal contest is further shaped by the positioning of other political figures, including Peter Obi, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Chibuike Amaechi.
Supporters of Obi have continued to insist that their candidate remains committed to a president or nothing position in any coalition arrangement.
At the same time, Obi has maintained a close political relationship with Kwankwaso, further influencing expectations within the emerging alliance.
Recently, supporters of both figures launched a new political pressure group known as the Obi Kwankwaso Movement.
Adding to the tension, the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, described current aspirants as desperate politicians, accusing them of prioritising personal ambition over national interest during a press briefing in Abuja.
These developments highlight growing divisions within the party, as internal disputes, coalition negotiations and competing ambitions intensify ahead of 2027.
Kwankwaso open to any role for coalition success
The spokesperson of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, Habibu Saleh, has stated that Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is willing to accept any role, including a possible vice presidential position, if it will ensure victory for the opposition in the 2027 elections.
Saleh made this known during an interview on Monday while addressing ongoing coalition discussions and reacting to comments by Atiku Abubakar regarding Kwankwaso’s political relevance.
“My principal has made it very clear to us all that we are joining this coalition simply to ensure that we contribute in any way possible to remove this present government of APC and Bola Ahmed Tinubu from power, so that democracy can survive and the nation can be saved.”
He added that Kwankwaso has been actively building alliances behind the scenes.
“He has been creating alliances, bringing people together and doing everything necessary to ensure that the party succeeds in its fight. He is ready to make the necessary sacrifice to achieve that goal.”
On the possibility of accepting a vice presidential role, Saleh said Kwankwaso is open to any arrangement that guarantees success.
“Be it that he is going to be given a slot as vice president or at whatever capacity, I believe that will work for the success of the coalition and the ADC.
“If he evaluates the arrangement and sees that it will bring victory and allow the party to succeed, my principal will take it. What matters most is success for Nigerians and for democracy.”
Kwankwaso’s influence extends beyond Kano
Responding to claims that Kwankwaso’s political strength is limited to Kano, Saleh described such assertions as inaccurate.
“It is a serious understatement for anybody to say that the relevance of my principal is only in Kano. The figures from the last election clearly show otherwise.”
He noted that Kwankwaso secured significant votes outside Kano despite contesting on a relatively less established platform.
“He got about 906,000 votes from Kano, but he also got about 500,000 votes from other parts of the country. And remember, he contested on a relatively unknown political party.
“He did not enjoy the support of any incumbent, no governor, no House of Representatives member, not even a councillor. He also did not have elite backing or strong party structure.”
“For any candidate that can deliver his own state under such conditions, it shows real connection with the people and strong political credibility.”
Saleh also compared Kwankwaso’s performance with Atiku’s earlier presidential bid.
“When Atiku contested as a sitting Vice President, with the support of the then ruling structure, he got about two million votes, which was around six percent.”
“Kwankwaso, contesting for the first time without holding any major office, also got about six percent. So, you can put that into perspective and make your judgment.”
North North ticket not likely
On the possibility of a joint ticket between Atiku and Kwankwaso, both from Northern Nigeria, Saleh said such an arrangement is unlikely.
“I don’t think that is realistic. We must be sensitive enough to present a ticket that reflects balance between North and South.”
“A same region or same religion ticket will only divide the country and hurt democracy. What Nigerians want is fairness and inclusiveness.”
He noted that this is why many Nigerians have shown interest in a Kwankwaso Peter Obi ticket.
“That kind of ticket is an easy sell. It can bridge the gap of mistrust and bring Nigerians together.”
Kwankwasiyya Movement remains strong
Saleh also dismissed claims that Kwankwaso’s political structure in Kano has weakened following recent developments.
He recalled that the movement has previously survived major political setbacks and regained strength.
“At a point, we didn’t have a councillor, a lawmaker or even a political appointee, yet we came back stronger and took over power again.
“We are even more organised now, and I can assure you, it will not be business as usual. We will do even better than before.”
He added that internal divisions within the ruling structure in Kano could work in Kwankwaso’s favour.
“The current political arrangement in Kano is not well managed, and even within the APC and the government, there is no proper alignment.”
He maintained that Kwankwaso remains focused on building a coalition capable of winning in 2027.
“What matters is removing this government and giving Nigerians a better alternative. My principal is ready to play any role that will make that happen.”
ADC can defeat Tinubu with unity
A political analyst, Hassan Ibrahim, said the African Democratic Congress stands a strong chance of defeating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 if key opposition figures unite.
“I think it is possible that they can manage their ambition if and only if they have learned a lesson from the past,” he said.
He recalled that in 2023, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso were all in the Peoples Democratic Party but failed to agree, leading to a split.
“Their inability to manage their ambition was the single reason that led to them going their separate ways.”
According to him, the division created an advantage for the ruling party.
“If Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso had managed their ambition and formed a coalition, they would have easily defeated APC.”
He cited election figures to support his position.
“Atiku got about 6.9 million votes, Obi had over 6.1 million votes, and Kwankwaso got about 1.4 million votes. If you add these votes together, you will get over 14 million votes, which is far higher than Tinubu’s 8.7 million votes.”
The analyst also stressed the need for the party to resolve its internal crisis before focusing on coalition politics.
“ADC currently has three blocs claiming leadership. You have the David Mark bloc, Nafiu Bala Gombe bloc, and Dumebi Kachikwu bloc. The party must resolve this crisis and present a united front that INEC will recognise.”
He further emphasised that personal ambition remains a major challenge.
“They have to lower their ego and ambition. If they don’t, they are indirectly giving Tinubu a second term on a platter of gold.”
He concluded that failure to unite could once again favour the ruling party.
“If they refuse to unite, then it means they are giving Tinubu an easy path to win again in 2027.”
“They must learn from 2023. If they repeat the same mistake, they should expect the same result.”
