The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and leading economic experts have issued a grim assessment of Nigeria’s economy, highlighting a disturbing mix of poor policy decisions, external economic shocks, and long-standing structural problems.
The IMF has revised down its growth outlook for the nation, citing declining oil prices, Nigeria’s primary revenue source, alongside increasing domestic issues under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. The elimination of fuel subsidies, rolled out without adequate social safety measures – has led to a significant increase in transport costs and prices of essential goods, pushing millions further into poverty.
The sharp devaluation of the naira and persistent foreign exchange instability have exacerbated inflation, undermining investor confidence and diminishing consumer spending. Critics contend that President Tinubu’s economic team is enacting reforms without mitigating their adverse effects, resulting in a severe cost-of-living crisis.
As public discontent rises, labor unions have initiated strikes, and mass protests are ongoing in major urban centers. Many citizens feel neglected by a government that they believe is failing to address the pressing issues of hunger, unemployment, and eroding purchasing power.
Once seen as potential economic diversifiers, agriculture and energy are also struggling. Food insecurity has intensified due to ongoing rural violence, including conflicts between farmers and herders, alongside banditry disrupting farming and food supply chains.
Yet, global oil trends are just one aspect of the issue. Analysts assert that much of Nigeria’s current economic turmoil is self-imposed.
Experts at the Vanguard Economic Discourse in Lagos indicated that Nigeria’s economic problems are predominantly self-inflicted. Dr. Yemi Kale, Chief Economist at Afreximbank, delivered a pointed critique of the nation’s policy framework, suggesting that many struggles stem from intentional government decisions rather than unexpected global events.
Speaking at the event, Kale cautioned that Nigeria is at a “critical strategic juncture.” He observed a pattern of ineffective planning, reactive governance, and short-term populist measures that are eroding the country’s economic resilience. He noted that structural issues are being aggravated by temporary solutions that do not address the root cause
“The stark reality is this: most Nigerians lack the economic buffers—such as savings, social protections, or institutional support—necessary to weather macroeconomic shocks,” Kale stated, drawing attention to the fragility of livelihoods under present pressures. He also criticized the rise in policy uncertainty and inflation, which have led businesses to cease hiring, investors to withdraw, and credit availability to tighten.
